On 9 November 2022, the Commander-in-Chief of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin, announced the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson and the right bank of the Dnieper River, in order to prevent the soldiers in this area from being surrounded.
For several months, the Ukrainian army has been constantly bombing the Antonov bridge and the dam of the Novaya Kahovka power station, causing a problem with the supply of water to the right bank of the Dnieper, where Kherson is located, and posing a risk of flooding a large part of the city and the banks of the river.
Indeed, the destruction inflicted by Himar missile strikes on the Antonov bridge has rendered it unusable, forcing the use of floating pontoons and ferries to cross the Dnieper. The pontoons and ferries themselves were regularly shelled by the Ukrainian army, including during the start of the evacuation of civilians from Kherson at the end of October. These bombardments caused several victims among civilians, including journalists.
Regarding the Novaya Kakhovka dam, three days ago the Ukrainian army again shelled it with Himars rockets. All but one of them were shot down by Russian anti-aircraft defence. Unfortunately, the remaining rocket hit and damaged one of the dam's sluices, raising fears that Kherson could be flooded and the floating pontoons providing the Russian army's logistical "lifeline" destroyed.
In fact, during his meeting with the Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, Surovikin mentioned this risk as one of the factors that led him to propose withdrawing Russian troops from Kherson and the right bank of the Dnieper. The aim was to avoid the operational encirclement of several thousand men by cutting off their supply lines.
He also said that civilian supplies to Kherson were also complicated in the current situation, and that keeping civilians in Kherson alive in good conditions had become very difficult.
The withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson and the right bank of the Dnieper is accompanied by a massive evacuation of civilians from the area. More than 115,000 people have already been evacuated in recent weeks, and the latest civilian evacuations are underway in Kherson. Even the animals in the zoo are being evacuated. The aim is of course to prevent civilians in Kherson from being massacred by Ukrainian soldiers for "collaboration", as we have seen in Bucha, or in Izyum, Balakliya and Krasny Lyman.
Faced with this announcement, the Ukrainian authorities remain doubtful, fearing a trap. And there is reason for this. The area around Kherson is only steppe, which will turn into a vast open field once the last leaves have fallen. Moreover, with civilians evacuated, Russia will be able to take fewer precautions when bombing Ukrainian troops advancing towards Kherson. And when one sees the appalling losses of the Ukrainian army in its attempts to break through the Russian defense in this area, when Russia did not have these two advantages (Surovikin reports casualties of more than 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers), it is not difficult to imagine what will happen next.
In any case, it will clearly be easier for Russian troops to set up strong defenses along the left bank of the Dnieper than on the plains of the right bank west of Kherson. Moreover, the destruction of the bridges will prevent the Ukrainian army from advancing, but will force it to maintain a large contingent in this area to prevent any further Russian advance. A contingent that the Ukrainian army will lack elsewhere.
For their part, the Russian troops withdrawn from this front will be sent to the zones where Russia is on the offensive. Because if the withdrawal from Kherson is highly publicized and visible, it should not be forgotten that on other parts of the front, Russian troops are advancing, in Ugledar, Artyomovsk, near Donetsk airport, and in Maryinka. The Russian soldiers coming from Kherson will accelerate these offensives. Clearly, there is no need to panic, this withdrawal is planned and for the moment well conducted, including the evacuation of civilians.
This difficult decision taken by Surovikin with the approval of Sergei Shoigu was made necessary by the current conditions resulting both from strategic mistakes made by some commanders at the beginning of the special operation, and by the destruction caused by the Ukrainian army, which does not care about flooding half of Kherson. Significantly, this decision was supported by Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the private security company Wagner, who had not been kind to the Russian command during the withdrawal from the Kharkov region.
This difficult decision is therefore agreed upon by those who know enough about military science to understand the situation of the Russian troops in Kherson and on the right bank of the Dnieper. The special operation is not over, and soon all 300,000 Russian troops will be sent to the combat zone (currently only about 80,000 have arrived). As Ramzan Kadyrov pointed out in his message supporting the decision to withdraw from Kherson, "after weighing the pros and cons, General Surovikin made a difficult but correct choice between a senseless sacrifice to make flashy statements and saving the invaluable lives of the soldiers".