On 21 September 2022, Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a partial mobilisation, one day after the announcement of the imminent organisation of a referendum on integration with the Russian Federation in the DPR and LPR (Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics), as well as in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.
On Monday 19 September 2022, after new deadly bombardments by the Ukrainian army against civilians in Donbass, the civic chambers of the DPR and the LPR asked the leaders of the two republics to organise a referendum on integration with the Russian Federation as soon as possible.
The decision was taken the very next day by Leonid Passetchnik, the head of the LPR, and then by Denis Pushilin, the head of the DPR, and the parliaments of the two republics passed the laws necessary for the organisation of the referendum, which will take place from 23 to 27 September 2022.
Following the movement initiated by the two Donbass People's Republics, the military-civilian administration of the Kherson region also decided to hold a referendum on integration into the Russian Federation on the same dates, followed by the Russian-controlled part of the Zaporozhye region.
According to a poll conducted by INSOMAR, the majority of the inhabitants of the four regions are ready to vote (from 65% in the Kherson region, to 83% in the LPR, to 72% in the Zaporozhye region and 80% in the DPR), and the yes to integration with the Russian Federation would win by a landslide, with 80% of the votes in Zaporozhye and Kherson, 90% in the LPR and 91% in the DPR.
Another poll conducted by the Crimean Republican Institute for Political and Sociological Research (RIPSI) gives a 94% yes vote in the DPR, 93% in the LPR, 87% in Zaporozhiye region and 80% in Kherson region.
Following these decisions, an important announcement by Vladimir Putin was expected that evening, but it will finally take place on the morning of 21 September 2022. In his speech, Vladimir Putin announced his support for the organisation of the referendum in the regions of Kherson and Zaporozhye, as well as in the DPR and LPR, for which Russia will provide security, so that people can go and vote in peace.
Vladimir Putin's decision to launch a partial mobilisation of reservists is part of the "necessary and urgent measures to protect the country's sovereignty, security and territorial integrity" in the face of the West's aim to "weaken, divide and ultimately destroy" Russia.
As the Russian President pointed out, the West is "already saying explicitly that they succeeded in dividing the Soviet Union in 1991, and that it is now time for Russia itself to disintegrate into a multitude of regions and zones that fight each other to the death".
There is nothing conspiratorial about this desire to break up Russia into smaller states. Western governments talk about it openly under the sweet name of "decolonization of Russia".
In the face of this existential threat, and the nuclear blackmail that has also been carried out by some senior representatives of key NATO states who have spoken of the possibility and admissibility of using nuclear weapons against Russia, Vladimir Putin was keen to point out that Russia "also has various means of defense, some of which are more advanced than those of NATO countries" and that if its "territorial integrity is threatened, we will of course use all the means at our disposal to defend Russia and our people". He concluded by stressing that "this is not a bluff".
Clearly, if some people think they are scaring Russia by brandishing this nuclear blackmail, Moscow reminds us that it has a large nuclear arsenal and that it is ready to use it if necessary. One of the sentences in Vladimir Putin's speech is very clear: "Those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons must know that the compass rose could turn against them".
As a reminder, NATO's symbol is a compass rose. Clearly, countries that host offensive weapons systems, and NATO nuclear weapons pointed at Russia, would become potential targets instead of being protected by the North Atlantic organisation.
As for the partial mobilisation, its modalities were specified by the Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, just after Vladimir Putin's speech. Only 300,000 of the 25 million men in the Russian reserve will be mobilized. Priority is given to men who have served in certain military specialties and have combat experience. Clearly, Russia will only mobilise 1.2% of its military reserves, which is minimal in terms of impact on the country's economy or population.
Sergei Shoigu took the opportunity to give an update on Russian and Ukrainian losses. He stated that the losses within the Russian army are 5,937 dead, a figure quite close to the 6,476 deaths announced by the BBC a few days ago (figures that include the National Guard, which depends on the Ministry of the Interior and not the Ministry of Defense). As for the injured, the Russian Defense Minister indicated that more than 90% of the Russian injured have already been able to return to duty.
On the Ukrainian side, the toll is not at all the same. Sergei Shoigu announced that the losses on the Ukrainian side were 61,207 dead and 49,368 wounded, to which must be added deserters and those taken prisoner. Of this total, more than 7,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been eliminated in the last three weeks of fighting alone, showing that Kiev's attacks in the Kherson and Kharkov regions have had a high human cost for the Ukrainian army.
Once the regions of Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson are integrated into the Russian Federation after the referendum scheduled to take place in a few days' time, the presence of Ukrainian soldiers in these regions will be considered as an occupation of Russian territory by Ukraine, and when the 300,000 Russian reservists are trained and ready for combat, then the Russian special military operation will take on a completely different (and much more dramatic) aspect for Kiev